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26.09.201309:16
Источник изображения: ИА "Авеста"

Выпуск-10

id: 45914

date: 11/23/2005 8:40

refid: 05DUSHANBE1852

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination:

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001852

SIPDIS

EUR/CACEN

SA

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREF, PGOV, TI

SUBJECT: UNHCR PROGRESS AND NEED FOR HELP IN TAJIKISTAN

1. (U) The UN High Commission for Refugees is shifting its focus

from emergency operations in Tajikistan for remaining refugees,

to development programs that will help to integrate the mostly

Afghan refugee community into Tajik society.  The shift is made

possible by Tajikistan's political stability, but is threatened

by a demand for bribes by the State Migration Service, a

proposal to move refugees from Dushanbe and Khojand to the

countryside, and the arbitrary deportations that create new

emergencies.

2. (U) UNHCR has repatriated over 53,000 refugees from

Tajikistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other CIS countries.

An unknown number of refugees returned home without UNHCR

assistance.  Some 1,400 refugees have also been resettled in

Canada.  Of the 1,500 refugees who remain in Tajikistan, 98

percent are Afghan, and the rest from Iran and Iraq.  UNHCR is

working to find durable solutions for the remaining refugees.

Very few refugees, mostly the elderly, handicapped, and single

mothers, are given cash stipends.  The rest UNHCR is hoping will

be considered for refugee status in the United States or fully

reintegrated into society.  For those remaining in Tajikistan,

UNHCR intends to use UNDP as an implementer for assistance,

taking over the micro-credit, housing, and school programs that

benefit not only the refugees, but also their local communities.

 UNDP is responsible for development programs, and UNHCR

considers itself more of an emergency response body, however,

UNHCR also plans to become more involved in border security

matters as well, particularly human rights and asylum case

training.

3. (U) The State Migration Service is often the main obstacle,

demanding bribes for refugees to stay in country, and now

threatening to move refugees from the major cities of Dushanbe

and Khojand, where they have access to UNHCR, schools, and

medical care, to the outlying countryside where they will be

more vulnerable than ever.

4. (U) Given this picture, the Embassy requests the next circuit

ride take place as soon as possible, and the Embassy will

actively join with UNHCR in its demarches to the Tajik

government, urging the Tajiks to allow these refugees, many of

whom have been here for ten years, to be resettled permanently

with either citizenship or legal resident status so that they

can become fully participating members in Tajik society.

HOAGLAND

NNNN

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 45938

date: 11/23/2005 11:19

refid: 05DUSHANBE1855

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

destination:

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS  DUSHANBE 001855

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, KDEM, TI

SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: NEW ECON REFORM PARTY CHAIRMAN SAYS TAJIKISTAN

NEEDS SLOW ECONOMIC REFORM

1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly.

Not for public Internet.

2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Tajikistan's new Party of Economic Reform

(PER) calls for gradual economic changes beginning with

agriculture reform, developing industry around farm products,

and creating a financial sector for agro-investment.  The party

favors a strong government hand in initiating the reform

process, and criticizes the government for not moving forward

with proposed reforms.  PER accuses other parties of being too

economically liberal, but is sympathetic to the ruling People's

Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT).  PER Chairman Olimzhon

Boboyev praised an "Eastern model" of government and ideally

wished Tajikistan had a monarchy with Rahmonov as the figurehead

king and an elected President and Prime Minister.  END SUMMARY.

PER's PLATFORM: TAJIKISTAN NEEDS SLOW BUT REAL ECONOMIC REFORM

3.  (U) In the local press, PER Chairman Boboyev stated the

party's goals: to reduce poverty, conduct proper privatization,

and attract foreign investments.  In a meeting with PolOff on

November 18, he proposed Tajikistan needs slow and gradual

economic reform, but is not yet ready for a free-market economy.

4.  (U) PER's platform is based on a three-step gradual

transition to a market economy.  The first step is agrarian

reform.  Boboyev argued the party does not favor privatizing

land ownership because privatization could lead to a feudal

system with a few elite able to afford land controlling peasants

who must work the land.  He called on private- and state-owned

joint ventures to organize small farm cooperatives to create a

market for the exchange of land use.

5.  (U) The second step, directly related to the development of

the agriculture sector, is industrial reform.  New industries

would use Tajikistan's agricultural output.  Boboyev identified

the need to fund small enterprises to process raw materials such

as cotton into yarn and then, over time, a textiles industry

could develop.

6.  (U) The third step would be to create a financial sector

revolving around agro-investment.  In Bobyev's opinion, with

industrial support, Tajikistan could build large plants to be

competitive with foreign enterprises, although Tajikistan still

lacks reliable electrical power.  Boboyev touted the need for

foreign investment and said Tajikistan can receive large amounts

of aid from the West, but it will not help; Tajikistan needs

investment to develop its economy.

7.  (U) The government should prepare each sector for

liberalization.  When the government deems a sector is finally

ready for liberalization, it should privatize.  The market will

then guide that sector and government influence would naturally

decrease.

8.  (U) Unlike leaders of other political parties, Boboyev has a

close working relationship with Parliamentarians and other

government ministries.  The Minister of Transport appointed him

head of the Transport Institute in 2003, and he often advises

Parliament on transport legislation.  Thus far, he has received

free access to and coverage by both independent and state media.

9.  (U) Boboyev has been publicly critical of the government

only in the realm of economic reform.  Politically, he agreed

with the current policies and specifically pointed out that

Rahmonov has chosen the best political approach towards

stability and built a positive image of the country.  However,

he criticized the government for being ineffective, the

bureaucracy too large, and the ministries not independent, but

rather extensions of the President.

FORMING A NEW POLITICAL PARTY:  A 12-MONTH PROCESS

10.  (U) The Ministry of Justice officially registered PER on

October 28.  Boboyev claimed the Party initiated the

registration process one year ago.  It currently has 1,112

members total, from every district, including Gorno Badakhshan.

Ninety percent of their members have advanced degrees and are

considered members of the intelligentsia, being economists,

lawyers, journalists, writers, and other educated professionals.

11.  (U) PER's Congress convened representatives from all

districts September 19.  According to Tajik law, the Congress

established the party's charter and elected staff members.  The

next Congress will meet in three months.  Boboyev hoped to have

a PER representative in every village.  The party's membership

fees are modest and not enough to meet the party's financial

needs, but PER intends to raise funds by creating local

enterprises.  Thus far, none have been established, but will be

set-up during the next few Congresses.  Boboyev dodged PolOff's

questions about how the party was initially funded.

12.  (SBU) COMMENT:  It is difficult to register any kind of

organization in Tajikistan, especially political parties -

unless the powers-that-be want them registered.  PER's

registration on its first try suggests the party is 100 percent

government approved, and likely government created.  END COMMENT.

13.  (U) PER shares few common principles with the seven other

registered political parties.  Primarily, Boboyev believes other

parties are economically too liberal in calling for less

government interference in the economy.  The party insists

Tajikistan needs the government to stabilize and stimulate the

economy.  He accused other parties of abandoning Tajikistan's

Eastern values and being too pro-Western.  The one exception,

noted Boboyev, was the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan,

which shared a similar platform with PER.

14.  (U) As next year's presidential election draws closer, PER

will announce its own presidential candidate.  Boboyev did not

rule out supporting another party's candidate, because, he

acknowledged, PER is a young party and could not win in the next

presidential election.  He hoped to establish a solid base for

the future, and believes the population will respect the party

because of its intelligentsia membership.

KING RAHMONOV

15.  (SBU) Boboyev ideally would like Tajikistan's government to

mirror Japan's.  He favored a monarchy for Tajikistan with

Rahmonov as king.  (COMMENT:  No, we are not making this up.

END COMMENT.)  Boboyev explained Rahmonov is concerned about his

own financial and political security and has infused his close

government circle with family members and people from the Kulyab

region.  If Rahmonov were king, he and his family would be

financed under the government's budget, meaning a smaller group

of people would be living off state money instead of the current

hundreds benefiting from Rahmonov's position.  As king, Rahmonov

would still exert influence, but it would not be as overreaching

because there would be an elected President or Prime Minister.

Over time, the monarch would become a figurehead.

16.  (SBU) COMMENT:  It is likely that PER was formed as a

"pocket party" to give the illusion of "democratic opposition"

as the government cracks down on the parties it does not like.

Boboyev's emphasis on the need for economic development and

reform rather than relying on Western aid is a Rahmonov talking

point.  As head of the Transport Institute, Boboyev is a

government-appointed bureaucrat, leaving little question about

the "independence" of his party.  His desire for a monarchy with

"King Rahmonov" is something we cannot fathom except to suggest

it may be an atavistic memory about Central Asia's medieval

khans.  However, the trend for the last several centuries has

been in the opposite direction -- toward democracy.  END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND

NNNN

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 45941

date: 11/23/2005 11:28

refid: 05DUSHANBE1856

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination: 05STATE209622

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS  DUSHANBE 001856

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, EAGR, EAID, TBIO, SENV, KSCA, SOCI, TI, KSTH, WHO

SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN:  GOVT UNABLE TO HANDLE POTENTIAL AVIAN FLU

OUTBREAK

REF: STATE 00209622

This cable is in response to STATE 00209622: Request for

Information on Avian and Pandemic Influenza

PREPAREDNESS/COMMUNICATION

1. Head Veterinarian, Dr. Mulojon Amirbekov, explicitly stated

that Tajikistan is not prepared to combat an Avian Flu outbreak.

 Tajikistan does not have a strategy for containing a pandemic

if it occurs; however, various government ministries have taken

measures, within their capabilities, to avoid an outbreak.  The

Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Health are the lead

departments working to devise preventative steps.  The Main

Board of Veterinary Service and State Veterinary Inspection,

housed under the Ministry of Agriculture, is the most informed

department and is spearheading prevention.  Deputy Minister of

Health, Zievuddin Avgonov is the primary point of contact in the

Ministry of Health.

2. Amirbekov admitted the government does not understand the

seriousness of Avian Flu, paying minimal attention to the issue.

 There are no specific funds for fighting an influenza outbreak.

  The Veterinary Service has brought this problem to the

government's attention.  Amirbekov believes the Prime Minister

would be an influential person who could give the issue due

attention, but he has not yet acted.

3. The Ministries of Health and Agriculture recognize the

importance of a collaborative international effort to prevent

Avian Flu from proliferating and would like to join the

International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza.  The

government, given its scant resources however, has decided to

take the "wait and see" strategy and will not join unless Avian

Flu is at its doorsteps.

4. Tajikistan is cooperating with regional governments only on

an ad hoc basis by implementing border controls and cooperating

on testing.  There is no formal regional working group on Avian

Flu.  Tajikistan's strongest partner is Kazakhstan where they

are sending sample strains to be tested at the Institute of

Agriculture and Veterinary Institute in Aqtau, Kazakhstan.  Two

veterinarian specialists await funding for a training trip to

Kazakhstan to learn how to combat Avian Flu.  Amirbekov hopes to

send three to four experts from every region to Kazakhstan for

training.   The cost would be $500-$600 per person.

5. Tajikistan has requested financial assistance from

international NGOs and USAID, but has not yet received positive

responses.  Amirbekov lamented in the press the lack of funds

for prevention.  According to him, Tajikistan needs $100,000 to

prevent an outbreak of Avian Flu.  Avgonov has also claimed the

need for six million dollars' worth of vaccinations.  The

country does not produce flu vaccines and thus far has not

bought any vaccines or medication due to the prohibitive cost.

Tajikistan is open to assistance from the United States through

bilateral or multilateral means.

6. Vaccines, medicine, or other supplies from donor countries

will be subject to import laws unless the Ministry waives import

duties on an emergency basis.    Amirbekov claims there is a

liability shield in place for foreign donors.  All medicines are

inspected prior to use.

7. The government's public statements about Avian Flu have

focused on the limited measures the government has taken to

prevent the flu.  They have not educated the public effectively

about personal safety measures.  Avgonov admitted to PolOff that

even medical professionals had asked for information about the

virus.  The Ministry of Health designed an educational piece for

public dissemination, but it has not been produced due to lack

of funds.  The Veterinary Service, in conjunction with the World

Food Program, prepared a brochure to train farmers to detect the

virus.  Representatives from both Ministries appeared on state

television to inform the public and alert farmers to sources of

help.

8. It is questionable how forthright the government will be in

announcing any cases of Avian Flu.  Earlier this year, there was

a suspected cholera outbreak in northern Tajikistan, which the

government attempted to cover-up and would not admit was

cholera.  The economic and political ramifications of an Avian

Flu outbreak might encourage the government to remain silent and

conceal any cases.

SURVEILLANCE/DETECTION

9. The Veterinary Service and the Ministry of Health have

implemented several measures in efforts to prevent Avian Flu

from entering Tajikistan.  The government banned poultry

products from ten countries including Russia, Kazakhstan, China,

and Turkey.  Tajikistan now imports 95 percent of chicken and

poultry products from Brazil, Canada, and the United States.

Ninety-five percent of eggs are imported from Iran.

10. The Chief Veterinarian believes that because vaccines are

prohibitively expensive, the most effective and easiest way to

stave off a pandemic would be to eliminate or quarantine the

birds.  The government is working on developing the country's

own supply of healthy poultry products and therefore has imposed

a quarantine on all of the country's large poultry farms.  In

addition, Tajikistan has begun to more closely control its

border with Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and China.  The Head

Veterinarian sought permission from the State Committee for

Environmental Protection and Forestry to shoot migratory birds

and test them for the virus.  Experts from the Veterinary

Service have begun to inspect chicken and poultry products in

the local markets and on all poultry farms.

11. Tajikistan used diagnostics equipment purchased from Russia

to test 200 strain samples at facilities in country.  However,

Kazakhstan has more sensitive and reliable equipment and the

previously tested strains are being sent to Kazakhstan to be

retested.  Because Tajikistan relies on Kazakhstan, there will

inevitably be a lag.

12. Tajikistan's veterinarians have also developed a project for

monitoring and studying immune-biological features of pathogenic

organisms for Avian Flu, which they hope to implement in

2006-2008.  However, they lack funds to carry out the project.

The most requested funding is to train Tajik experts to monitor

and detect the problem.

RESPONSE/CONTAINMENT

13. Tajikistan has no official plan to respond to an outbreak of

even one case of Avian Flu.  Due to a lack of funds, the

government cannot stockpile antiviral medication, vaccines or

protective gear for the population.  If a case occurs, the

government would attempt to localize it by quarantining the farm

or local village, eliminating infected birds, and disinfecting

contaminated facilities.  Tajikistan purchased three tons of

disinfectants from Russia for these purposes.  There is no

response plan in place to deal with a human contraction of the

virus.

HOAGLAND

NNNN

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 46042

date: 11/25/2005 6:10

refid: 05DUSHANBE1858

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

destination:

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001858

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

EUR/ACE

SA

IO

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TI, UNGA

SUBJECT: SIRODJIDDIN ASLOV APPOINTED TO THE UNITED NATIONS

1. (SBU)  Sirodjiddin Mukhriddinovich Aslov has been named as

Tajikistan's new Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

 For the last two years Alsov has been Deputy Foreign Minister

and a useful and active interlocutor for the Embassy.

2. (SBU)  The following are notes from his official biography

and recent meetings with DCM.

3. (SBU)  Aslov was born on February 17, 1964 in Kangurt Village

of Sovet (Temurmalik) District of Khatlon Region.  In 1986 he

graduated with Honor from Odessa Hydrometereology Institute and

his major was "Agrometereology".  In 2001 he graduated from

Tashkent State Economic University the Faculty to International

Economic Relations.  He has finished postgraduate study of

Hydrometcenter of USSR in Moscow.

4. (SBU)  Aslov started his career in 1986 at Tajikistan

Hydrometcenter as an Engineer-Agrometereology and then worked as

a Chief of Scientific-Technical Development and Standards at the

Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of

Tajikistan, Deputy Chief, Department of Hydrometereology and

Control of Environment.

5. (SBU)  In 1996 he was appointed the Plenipotentiary

Representative of the Republic of Tajikistan at the Executive

Committee of the International Aral See Foundation (IASF).  He

worked at this position till 2002 and at the same time he was

heading different regional projects in Central Asia.

In June 2002 he was appointed the Chairman of Executive

Committee of Aral Sea Foundation.

6. (SBU)  In February 2004 he was appointed the First Deputy

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan and at

the same time worked as the Chairman of IASF.  He is the author

a dozen scientific articles on the issues related to monitoring

and management of water resources, the flooding dangers posed by

Lake Sarez, ecological problems, hydrometereology and others.

Aslov is a national Coordinator of the Republic of Tajikistan at

the SCO and has the rank of First Class Extraordinary and

Plenipotentiary Minister.

7. (SBU)  As Deputy Minister he has been involved in a wide

range of issues and is often a decision-maker on our bilateral

issues.  His English level is fairly basic, about a 2 according

to FSI standards.  He is very interested in improving his

language skills and the Embassy has provided him with some basic

English materials.  He has been to several American cities and

speaks warmly of the more rural states like Nebraska.  Aslov has

yet to be won over by New York because of its immensity,

traffic, noise and pollution.  Aslov is believed to be related

to President Rahmonov but we do not know the exact connection.

Aslov said, and other MFA counterparts confirm, that the Foreign

Minister is in no hurry to replace him, and may leave the post

vacant for several months.  For the Embassy, we may have to

either go to Ismat Nasredinov, Chief of the North American Desk,

or the Minister himself to resolve problems.   Sirojdin Aslov is

41, married with four kids.  He will go to Post first and his

family will follow later in December or January.

HOAGLAND

NNNN

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 46139

date: 11/28/2005 4:13

refid: 05DUSHANBE1867

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination: 05DUSHANBE1855

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001867

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, TI, Internal Politics

SUBJECT: AGRARIAN PARTY OF TAJIKISTAN:  ANOTHER POCKET PARTY FOR

RAHMONOV

REF: DUSHANBE 1855

1.  The Agrarian Party of Tajikistan (APT) is the brainchild of

its Chairman, Amir Karakulov, or so he insists.  Karakulov, a

former member of the Communist Party of Tajikistan, decided

three years ago that he would like to form his own party to

protect farmers' rights.  A self-proclaimed Soviet-Era man, he

was the former (1972-1988) Deputy Minister of Agriculture.  He

has served as Director of the Cattle Farmer's Institute since

1989, and is also the Vice Rector of the Tajik Agriculture

Academy.

2.  The new APT claims to be an independent party fighting to

protect the agricultural population's rights.  However, in a

meeting with PolOff November 23, Karakulov stated his party

respects Rahmonov, and he will personally support him because

Rahmonov brought stability to the country.  With its small

membership, APT will not put forth a candidate in next year's

presidential elections.  Karakulov allied the party with the

People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) and the newly

formed Party of Economic Reform (reftel).  He added he respects

all other parties' goals and ideas and would even like to

cooperate with them, but does not want his party to be divisive

or provocative.

3.  The APT's primary agenda includes poverty reduction,

agrarian workers' rights, and creating an agricultural industry

that is competitive with foreign companies.  Karakulov argued

the government should pave the way for land privatization,

structure SMEs around agriculture, and set policies to attract

foreign investment.  He insisted that Tajikistan must have a

permanent agro-industrial base.  The nation's political

independence depends on its agricultural independence and food

security.  He appreciated American grain and seed donations, but

said Tajikistan needs aid for development, including new

American technology and assistance in scientific research.

4.  The Ministry of Justice registered the APT on November 15

with members from every district in Tajikistan.  Karakulov, in

response to criticisms his party is a "pocket party," insisted

on showing PolOff the membership registration sheet with all

1300 names, addresses, and telephone numbers.  He claimed that

the Ministry of Justice took one month to inspect the entire

membership.  Karakulov let slip an anecdote that the APT already

had targeted members and simply asked farmers to sign on the

dotted line.  One farmer, fearing government retribution, asked

if this party was for or against Rahmonov.  The APT told him the

party supported Rahmonov so that he would sign.

5.  The majority of APT's members are farmers and peasants, but

the upper echelon are agriculture specialists.  Karakulov was

elected Chairman during the October 1 party congress.  The party

has three deputies in the Sughd region, Khatlon, and Dushanbe,

37 elected central committee members, and seven staff.

Membership fees range from 50 diram to one somoni (or 16 to 30

U.S. cents).  APT plans to fund operations by soliciting

entrepreneurs, landowners and businessmen as sponsors.

6.  COMMENT:   A subdued and complacent party such as the APT is

precisely the type of "pocket party" Rahmonov would welcome to

give the appearance of political diversity but really to

guarantee his support and supposed legitimacy.   Karakulov's

admission that members were recruited and targeted takes away

from the independence of his political movement.  The party's

membership solicitation style, broad platform, political

compadres, and Karakulov's current government position and

former membership in the CPT (another PDPT ally) all point to

APT being an attempt by the government to manage the political

system by providing the illusion of a multi-party coalition

behind President Rahmonov.  END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND

NNNN

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 46150

date: 11/28/2005 6:48

refid: 05DUSHANBE1869

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination:

header:

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001869

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA, INR/B

NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/28/2015

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, TI, Internal Politics

SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN:  TWO NEW DEPUTY MINISTERS APPOINTED

UNEXPECTEDLY

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy

Dushanbe.

REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)

1.  (U) President Rahmonov unexpectedly appointed two key deputy

ministers on November 24 - Saidmumin Sattorovich Yatimov as new

First Deputy Foreign Minister and Kosim Abdusalomovich Gaforov

as Deputy Minister of Security.

2.  (SBU) Major-General Yatimov had been Deputy Minister of

Security for International Relations and Cooperation with

Foreign Security Services since 2001.  He is a career KGB

officer and replaces the Foreign Ministry's First Deputy

Sirojiddin Aslov who has been named Tajikistan's PermRep to the

United Nations.

3.  (C) Prior to his new appointment, Colonel Gaforov headed the

Counter-Intelligence Department at the Ministry of Security

since April 2004.  A former Soviet KGB officer, Gaforov was the

Chief of the Tajik Tourism Agency 1998-2004.  (COMMENT:  That

says a lot about the Tajik "tourism" industry.  END COMMENT.)

4.  (C) The appointments were unexpected, even for the

appointees.  On the morning of November 24, both were at

Dushanbe International Airport working on a sensitive case when

they received word that Rahmonov wanted to see them immediately.

 Yatimov reportedly blanched.  They expected the worst.

Instead, they got new jobs.

5.  (C) On November 21, Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov had

groused to the Ambassador that with Aslov going to the UN, he'd

have to find a new First Deputy, and it could take several

months.  Instead, it took three days.  Although the Foreign

Ministry has a good number of secunded Security Ministry

officers in its various sections, Yatimov will be the most

senior among them.  During the past 18 months, in the aftermath

of the "color revolutions" and the ascendancy of Russia in the

Ministry of Security, Yatimov has been the point man designated

to meet (rarely) with the Ambassador and other senior Western

officials.  However, he had also been disliked within the

Security Ministry for being imperious.  He had recently

campaigned for the UN PermRep job.  In his late 40's, he speaks

reasonably good English, although it becomes increasingly

fractured in long meetings, and insists on using it even with

Russian-speaking American officers.  His English seems to some

to have a slight Chinese accent.

6.  (C) While there had been politically elite chatter that

Yatimov might replace Aslov as First Deputy Foreign Minister,

Gaforov's promotion is a real surprise, especially since he had

let it be known in-house that he was disgruntled after not

having reached the rank of general in the last round of

promotions earlier this year, and it was thought he would soon

retire.  Embassy Dushanbe maintains a good relationship with

him.  He has been particularly helpful in resolving difficult

AmCit consular cases.  In his late 40's, he speaks fluent

English with a British accent.  In November 1992, Gaforov

orchestrated the Embassy's first meeting between then-U.S.

Charge d'affaires Edmund McWilliams and at that time Chairman of

Government Emomali Rahmonov.

7.  (C) COMMENT:  We are intrigued by these appointments.  It

had become conventional-wisdom chatter in the Western diplomatic

community that President Rahmonov appeared to be selling out to

Moscow - and that kind of chatter gets picked up and reported.

It could be that Rahmonov is sending a signal, or wants to give

the illusion, that he is restoring a degree of balance in his

relations between Russia and the West.  Foreign Ministry

officials have told us they are taking a wait-and-see attitude

about Yatimov.  We don't rule out that he will crack a velvet

whip to rein in a bit the relatively liberal Foreign Ministry.

We will know more once we begin to deal with him for

problem-solving.  With Ghaforov, it is unclear if he will have

any clout with the hard-line Ministry of Security.  Initially to

us, his appointment seems possibly a cosmetic calculation for

Western consumption.  END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND 

Источник: ИА "Авеста"
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