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21.04.201407:48
Источник изображения: ИА "Авеста"

Выпуск-40

id: 78571

date: 9/15/2006 11:46

refid: 06DUSHANBE1717

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

destination: 06DUSHANBE1717|06STATE128229

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----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 001717

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, OES

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, SENV, TBIO, TI

SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN - AN OCEAN OF IRONY: ABUNDANT WATER IN A

DESERT-LIKE, MOUNTAINOUS, LANDLOCKED COUNTRY

REF: STATE 128229

DUSHANBE 00001717  001.2 OF 004

1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  Water gushes down the mountains of

Tajikistan, the most water-rich country in Central Asia.  Yet

people lack clean drinking water, utilities are poorly managed,

and poor irrigation hinders agricultural development.  There

exists tremendous potential for hydropower development for

energy export, but the government has not yet been able to

harness this resource to its benefit.  Tajikistan remains

plagued by crumbling Soviet irrigation, water supply and

sanitation systems.  Transboundary water sharing issues are a

constant threat to political peace with neighboring Uzbekistan,

while Afghanistan could become a strategic water partner.  The

government recognizes the challenges it faces and political will

from the top rains down, but Tajikistan needs assistance from

international partners in order to soak up its potential and

develop its water infrastructure.  United States assistance can

make a big impact locally to reduce suffering from water-borne

diseases and region-wide by facilitating resolutions to tough

transboundary water issues.  END SUMMARY.

GOVERNMENT ENTHUSIASM SPRINGS WHILE BUDGET TRICKLES

2.  (SBU)  Water is Tajikistan's greatest resource and the Tajik

government recognizes the power of harnessing its potential.  In

2003, at the initiative of Tajikistan's President Rahmonov, the

UN General Assembly declared 2005-2015 the Decade of Water for

Life.  Political will from the top is genuine and the government

is committed to supplying the population with potable water,

reforming its water utilities management system and investing in

improved infrastructure.  To accomplish these goals, however,

the Ministry of Water needs $800-900 million.  With an

internally-funded fiscal budget of USD 500 million, Tajikistan

currently provides 8.5 million Tajik Somoni (TJS) or the

equivalent of 2.4 million USD each year for water activities,

60% of which goes towards the salaries of the ministry's 17,000

employees.  Tajikistan relies mainly on foreign donors such as

the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to provide financing

for water projects.

3.  (SBU)  The president has proposed a plan to supply water to

the majority of the country by 2020.  The plan has been sent to

all ministries for clearance and the president hopes it will be

approved by October 2006.  The government plans to allot $5-6

million of its own funds towards the project.  U.S. assistance

in coordination with other donors could provide needed resources

to supplement the government's funds. The MoW is also proposing

several amendments and new legislation to parliament that would

improve water sanitation and management, including legislation

that would bolster USAID's Water Users Association program.

PRIORITY NO. 1 - I CAN'T DRINK THE WATER!

4.  (U)  The first priority for the Tajik government is to

provide the population with clean drinking water.   Tajikistan's

Soviet-built 1960s water supply and sewage system is in dire

need of repair.  In urban areas, 93 percent of the population

has running water, but only 43 percent in rural areas.  In major

cities, 80 percent of the population is connected to sewer

facilities, but only five percent in rural areas.  Residents

routinely report water outages when the old equipment breaks

down or electricity is cut off and pumping stations cannot

operate.  Tajikistan's landscape is 93 percent mountainous and

many homes rely on pumping stations to supply water.  Some rural

residents rely on open above ground canals for their water.

Children often play in the same water canal they drink from and

DUSHANBE 00001717  002.2 OF 004

bathe in.

5.  (U)  As anyone who has turned on a tap in Dushanbe knows,

water from the faucet often resembles tea, and sometimes in

certain neighborhoods, a stew, complete with rocks and leaves.

No large-scale filtration system exists, leaving the public

vulnerable to a high occurrence of water-borne diseases.

Currently, water purification is minimal; water reservoirs are

chlorinated, but this does not save water from contamination in

the corroded pipelines.

6.  (SBU)  The World Bank is attempting to help bring potable

water to Dushanbe through a $20 million project.  The project is

in jeopardy, however, because the Islamic Development Bank has

dragged its feet on its part of the project's implementation.

IDB has not managed to clean Dushanbe's water basin, which

causes the dirty water to destroy the World Bank's newly

installed equipment that is supposed to clean the water supply.

The World Bank has temporarily suspended installing new

equipment.  If IDB follows through with its commitment, this

project would provide 70 percent of Dushanbe's population with

clean drinking water.

PRIORITY NO. 2 - REFORM UTILITIES MANAGEMENT TO PRECIPITATE

ECONOMIC GROWTH

7.  (SBU)  Two-thirds of the population works in agriculture,

but delays in timely water delivery to farms result in huge

economic losses for farmers, who in turn are not able to pay

their bills and become more indebted.   Without the USD 180

million annual subsidy the Soviet Union used to pour into

maintenance of irrigation systems, farmers cannot maximize

production.  The government currently spends USD three million

annually for maintenance, which is funded through budget

supplementals.

8.  (SBU)  Getting farmers to pay for water affects not only the

water industry but the electricity sector.  The revenue-poor MoW

is plagued by residents, farmers, and businesses refusing to pay

for their water usage.  Farmers owe the MoW 55 million Tajik

Somoni (TJS), the equivalent of $16 million.  Of this amount,

the MoW owes 22 million TJS to the Ministry of Energy and Barqi

Tojik (the state electric utility) for energy consumption.  The

MoW's facilities consume 18 percent of Tajikistan's electric

power production.  In the mid and late autumn, the lack of

reliable electricity means that pumping stations cannot function

and farmers cannot sow winter crops.  The government faces a

dilemma as the MoW cannot simply cut off water to people who do

not pay their bills; it would be a political disaster.  The MoW

has tried to bring private companies to court in an attempt to

force them to pay.

9.  (U)  USAID's Water Users Association program has been a

tremendous success training farmers how to properly maintain and

manage water resources and develop sound financial management.

WUAs have addressed payment issues by introducing water meters

to communities.  Water meters are a transparent tool that allows

both the government and user to accurately measure the amount of

water used so that the user can pay the proper amount.  Through

this program, farmers now are beginning to pay the MoW and water

payments have increased by 40 percent.  If this program can be

replicated throughout the country, it would dramatically

increase financial resources for the MoW to carry out necessary

projects and infrastructure rehabilitation.

PRIORITY NO. 3- RIVER BANK REINFORCEMENT SAVES LIVES AND MONEY

DUSHANBE 00001717  003.2 OF 004

10.  (U)  Each year the Tajik government spends over one million

USD reinforcing river banks and cleaning up after flood damage.

This year, the Asian Development Bank has provided $8.3 million

in credit for bank reinforcement projects along the Pyanj River,

which borders Afghanistan.  Next year, ADB will provide $22

million in credit to complete bank reinforcement projects.  Bank

reinforcement will save lives, property and economic

livelihoods.

AN OVERARCHING PRIORITY- GOOD NEIGHBORS AND TRANSBOUNDARY

COOPERATION

11.  (U)  Living in a closely knit and politically sensitive

neighborhood, like it or not, the Central Asian countries need

to work together to resolve transboundary water issues.

Tajikistan needs to address watersharing issues before moving

forward with larger hydropower projects.  Embassy Dushanbe and

the Afghan Reconstruction Group facilitated preliminary

bilateral water discussions between the Tajik and Afghan

governments in Tajikistan, which resulted in the drafting of a

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to address transboundary water

issues and cooperation between the two countries.  This MoU will

help to lay the groundwork for future frequent and closer

bilateral discussions, increased cooperation on monitoring river

flows, and cooperation on infrastructure projects such as

hydropower dams.  Establishing a solid cooperative relationship

between the two countries now is crucial to ensuring that future

projects are not hindered due to squabbling over water rights.

12.  (SBU)  Tajikistan's relationship with Uzbekistan has been

less cooperative.  During the Soviet period, water-supplying

republics (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) traded with energy

supplying republics (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) as part of a

centrally planned and enforced regional economy.  That balance

has broken down in post-Soviet Central Asia.   The Tajik

Minister of Water says that he spends at least one hour each day

trying to resolve water issues with Uzbek authorities.  The

media reports Uzbekistan threatening to cut off Tajikistan's

electricity supply if it does not pay its energy bill or supply

Uzbekistan with more water.  As the country with the most water

resources in Central Asia, downstream countries such as

Uzbekistan rely on Tajikistan to supply water to its farms.

Uzbekistan has also opposed Tajikistan's plans to build

additional hydropower stations that may reduce the flow of water

to Uzbekistan, and also make Tajikistan less reliant on Uzbek

electricity.  Many Tajiks believe Uzbekistan may become more

aggressive toward Tajikistan if Tashkent feels threatened by

Tajikistan's increased cooperation with other countries in the

region.

13.  (U)  Another key transboundary issue is reviving the Aral

Sea's ever-diminishing water level.  The Aral Sea is the biggest

environmental disaster in Central Asia due to years of Soviet

agricultural practices demanding river diversions that deplete

the sea.   Despite international conferences and partnerships to

address the problem, no resolution is on the horizon.

U.S. ENGAGEMENT - A FAUCET IN A PARCHED DESERT

14.  (U)  Measures the U.S. can use to assist Tajikistan in

solving it water problems include:

-- Increase the number of exchanges for government officials as

well as technical experts to the United States to learn about

the spectrum of water issues from sanitation to irrigation to

DUSHANBE 00001717  004.4 OF 004

transboundary water management;

-- Promote new efficient technology such as pumping stations

that would rely on half the electricity, modern irrigation

technology such as drip irrigation, machinery to dig wells in

rural areas, and filters

-- Provide technical assistance so that Tajik politicians and

decision-makers can better understand reforms needed.

-- Expand support for USAID's Water User's Associations programs

which train farmers how to manage and properly maintain water

resources;

-- Co-finance IFI projects; and

-- Continue to support and facilitate dialogue between Central

Asian nations to address transboundary water issues,

particularly between Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

15.  (U)  COMMENT:  Tajikistan's water needs are basic and the

United States can make a big impact with financial or technical

support.  By providing assistance in the realm of water we will

address one of the government's top priorities as well as allow

the people of Tajikistan in urban and rural areas to benefit

from tangible and direct U.S. assistance.   Post would welcome

technical assistance from U.S. government agencies either by

hosting experts or collaborating with domestic offices to

provide training for Tajiks.  In line with the Central Asian

Infrastructure Integration Initiative, post will remain involved

in hydropower and energy issues and identify opportunities for

U.S. business involvement.  END COMMENT.JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 78583

date: 9/15/2006 13:09

refid: 06DUSHANBE1718

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination: 06DUSHANBE1718

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----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001718

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, ECIN, ECON, EFIN, ENRG, PREL, EAID, TBIO, TI

SUBJECT: CHINESE PRIME MINISTER BRINGS GOOD FORTUNE TO SCO TALKSIN

DUSHANBE

DUSHANBE 00001718  001.2 OF 002

1.  (U)  SUMMARY: The fifth session of the Shanghai Cooperation

Organization heads of government began September 15 in Dushanbe

to a flourish of publicity.  High-level representatives from

China, Russia, Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan,

observers from India, Iran, Pakistan, and Mongolia, as well as

Afghanistan as a non-status observer, will focus on regional

economic and security cooperation.  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's

visit to Tajikistan, the first of its kind in 14 years, along

with the first joint military cooperation between China and

Tajikistan, serves to greatly boost the relationship between the

two countries.  END SUMMARY.

2.  (U)  Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

meeting September 15-16 will seek to further the implementation

of resolutions passed by the June SCO summit in Shanghai, as

well as pass the organization's 2007 budget.  According to press

reports, the main issues of discussion include cooperation in

the fields of economy, telecommunications, transportation,

energy, environmental protection, and education.  Leading the

delegations are: Tajik Prime Minister Oqil Oqilov, Chairman of

the Chinese State Council Wen Jiabao, Russian Prime Minister

Mikhail Fradkov, Kazakh Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, Kyrgyz

Prime Minister Felix Kulov, and Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister

Rustam Azimov.  From SCO observing countries: Indian Minister of

State in the Prime Minister's Office Prithviraj Chavan, Iranian

Vice-President for Executive Affairs Ali Saidlu, Pakistan's

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Mongolian Vice Prime Minister

Mendsayhany Enhsayhan.  First Vice President of Afghanistan

Ahmad Zia Masud is attending as a guest.  This SCO Prime

Minister's meeting will provide the basis for the next SCO

President's meeting.

3.  (U)  Zhang Deguang, Executive Secretary of the SCO, met with

President Rahmonov to discuss the agenda of the summit.

According to press, Zhang publicly praised the social and

political situation in Tajikistan, particularly for its

"stability, peace and national unity. . . .  This as well as the

economic development of the country is very important for

security in the Central Asian region."  Zhang and Rahmonov

discussed issues of post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan's

economy.  "We are interested in reestablishment of stability in

this country, because stability and security of the SCO states

depend on security and stability in Afghanistan."  The SCO and

Afghanistan set up a contact group to consider measures to

reconstruct Afghanistan's economy and deal jointly with

international terrorism and drug trafficking.

4.  (U)  According to the Ministry of Economic Development of

Russia, SCO representatives will approve two new highway

projects during the SCO meeting.  The two highways will be built

through: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Despite Tajikistan's stated belief that energy projects are best

discussed on a bilateral basis, rather than through the SCO,

Russia and others will ensure that regional energy cooperation

remains high on the agenda.  According to government sources,

SCO Observers Iran, India and Pakistan are actively seeking

membership in the SCO, whereas Mongolia lacks such interest.

5.  (SBU)  According to news reports, during Chinese-Tajik

discussions the sides will discuss the implementation of

previously signed agreements on economic, military and technical

cooperation, and discuss possibilities for new Chinese

investments in Tajikistan, particularly in the hydropower

sector.  The two sides are also expected to discuss regional

security, and strengthening cooperation in the fight against

terrorism, extremism and separatism.  Jiabao and Rahmonov are

expected to take part in an official ceremony launching the

construction of the electric transmission line (LEP)

"North-South" in the Varzob Gorge.  In addition, Chen Yuan,

Chairman of China's Development Bank arrived in Dushanbe to sign

an agreement with the Tajik National Bank under which the

Chinese side will provide a USD 10 million loan to enhance the

agriculture sector in Tajikistan.  According to the Tajik State

Statistical Committee, China exported nearly USD 70 million in

goods to Tajikistan in the first six months of this year, up 40%

from the same period last year.  Tajik exports to China over the

same period amount to USD 5.5 million.

6.  (SBU)  In a new development, Chinese special forces and

Tajik troops are preparing for the first ever joint

anti-terrorist exercises according to the Tajik defense

ministry.  The joint military exercises, are planned for

DUSHANBE 00001718  002.2 OF 002

September 21-23 on the Tajik training ground Mumirak, 200

kilometers (124 miles) southeast of Dushanbe, the ministry's

spokesman said.  A total of about 500 soldiers will take part,

including a company of Chinese special forces, the defense

ministry said.  The Tajiks will supply artillery, air power and

paratroopers.  The drill will be held as part of the Shanghai

convention on the fight against terrorism, separatism and

extremism, in line with this year's plan of military and

military-technical cooperation of the two states' defense

agencies.

7.  (U)  Centrasia.ru published a testy article describing U.S.

intentions in Central Asia, entitled "To Decrease the Influence

of the SCO and the Organization of Agreement for Collective

Security - this is the priority task for U.S. State Department

in Central Asia."  The author attempts to discredit U.S.

engagement, particularly Richard Boucher's statements and

Ambassador Hoagland's statements in Central Asia as ineffective

and "adding no value to Central Asia."  The article urges the

SCO to confront U.S. interests in the region rather than seek

avenues of cooperation.

8.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Many observers here quietly feel the SCO

serves Chinese interests in the region and nothing more.

However, as China continues to lavish attention and money on the

region, a small and poor country like Tajikistan has much to

gain as well.  Russia does not appear worried about the SCO

eroding Moscow's position vis-a-vis China in Central Asia, and

like China, appears to be championing the use of the SCO for

economic purposes.  END COMMENT.

JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 78724

date: 9/18/2006 7:05

refid: 06DUSHANBE1720

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination: 06DUSHANBE1621

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----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001720

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL:  9/18/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KIRF, TI

SUBJECT: TAJIK SYNAGOGUE AND ORTHODOX CHURCH SUFFERS ANOTHER MOLOTOV

COCKTAIL ATTACK

REF: DUSHANBE 1621

CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy

Dushanbe, STATE.

REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)

1.  (U)  Assailants threw Molotov cocktails onto the premises of

the Jewish synagogue and Russian Orthodox Church September 14.

The assailants and their motives are unknown but synagogue

members verified that two young Tajik men ages 17-20 threw three

Molotov cocktails into the synagogue.   Two Molotov cocktails

landed in the courtyard in the interior of the building and one

outside the perimeter wall.  Synagogue members quickly

extinguished small fires from two of the bottles.  A third

bottle did not break.  No one was injured.  Synagogue members

and the security guard hired after the Molotov cocktail attack

two weeks ago (reftel) chased after the assailants, through the

central park and past the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but could

not catch them.

2.  (SBU)  Neighbors alerted police immediately and

investigators arrived on the scene within five minutes.  EmbOff

witnessed mishandling of evidence as people were allowed to

touch the glass bottles and contaminate the scene.  When Poloff

visited the synagogue September 15 for a meeting at an

unannounced time, MOI officials were sitting in the center of

the synagogue.  They were not actively investigating the scene

or talking to witnesses.  Within five minutes after PolOff's

arrival, an additional two MOI employees arrived.  The MOI

lingered by the door during PolOff's meeting with synagogue

officials and within a few minutes of the conversation proceeded

to sit in on the meeting.

3.  (SBU)  MOI officials claimed they are investigating the

incident, but have no strong leads.  In an effort to identify

the attackers, they will ask synagogue members and neighborhood

residents to point them out in a photo line-up.  One MOI

official did not even know about the previous synagogue attack

(reftel) and officials said the MOI is investigating the two

incidents separately with two different teams.  PolOff pointed

out that there is a strong likelihood the incidents are related

and perhaps the teams should work together, but received no

reply from the MOI officials at the scene.  One of the broken

bottles still lay by the outer wall and the MOI had not yet

collected it.

4.  (C)  An MOI major said the government is treating this as a

very politically sensitive case.  He believes the attackers were

acting on behalf of "foreign enemies" aiming to destabilize

Tajikistan.  Another MOI official said the attackers are

probably allies of an ostracized Jewish community member out for

revenge.   The official stance at present is that simple

hooligans were behind the attack.  The head of the Russian

Orthodox Church commented that he too believes the attackers are

hooligans out to cause some trouble.   No concrete evidence

clearly indicates who the attackers are or their objective.

5.  (C)  COMMENT:  Theories on the attackers' motives abound,

from foreign agents angry over recent events in the Middle East

to local Muslim youth carrying out anti-Semitic acts.  One

looming conflict is the government's long-term clash with the

synagogue over the land dispute.  Some say the government could

be behind the attacks in an attempt to force the synagogue out

or that someone within the government could be using the attacks

to justify a greater clamp-down on terrorist or extremist

activity.  If the government truly deems the synagogue incidents

politically important it will elevate the cases to the Ministry

of Security level.  It is even more unclear why the Russian

Orthodox Church was a target.  The Church does not have a

DUSHANBE 00001720  002 OF 002

history of dispute with the government or local population.  It

is supported by wealthy Russians and is currently undergoing

building renovations.  The near simultaneous nature of these

attacks indicates they were coordinated.

6.  (C)  The  Molotov cocktail attacks cause concern for the

safety of the religious institutions in Dushanbe and their

members.  The MOI's mishandling of evidence and apparent lack of

enthusiasm to pursue the cases either due to incompetence or

deliberate planning, is troublesome.  It clearly shows that the

MOI needs professional training in crime-scene investigation.

END COMMENT.

JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 78909

date: 9/19/2006 8:05

refid: 06DUSHANBE1723

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

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----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001723

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, TI

SUBJECT: EIGHT WEEKS OUT: CCER ISSUING DECREES LEFT AND RIGHT

DUSHANBE 00001723  001.2 OF 002

1.  Tajikistan's Central Committee on Elections and Referenda

(CCER) signed a new decree September 15 addressing candidates'

usage of mass media during the presidential campaign,

establishing polling stations and forming a working group to

deal with international observers.  The decrees are a small step

forward, but media time is still limited and the CCER did not

fully engage political parties in the process.  CCER members

signed the decree in the presence of the Ministry of Foreign

Affairs, Parliament members, Ministry of Justice, presidential

advisors, media and the international community.  Although the

meeting is supposedly open to all, political parties were not

invited to the table.

2.  The decree signed on September 15 grants each candidate a

total of 30 minutes of TV and radio airtime and 10 minutes for

each candidate's proxies.  A candidate may have up to 15

proxies.  Candidates are allowed to submit articles for

publication in state and independent press.  When submitting

articles to newspapers, the candidate's article should not

exceed ten double-spaced typed pages.  If a candidate wishes to

obtain more airtime or press space, he must fund it himself.

During the meeting, a state television representative piped up

and protested that the amount of free airtime is too much.

Boltoyev, Chairman of the CCER, assuaged him by saying that the

amount of time is not excessive and pointed out that in other

countries, candidates are on the air 24/7.  Campaign posters for

all candidates will be in A3 format, the text will be in size 16

font and the candidate's photo should be no bigger than 9 x 14.

3.  The decree named an 11-person committee to work with and

organize international observers for the election.  It also

listed 26 voting stations to be set up abroad.  Several polling

station sites will be established in Russia to accommodate the

numerous labor migrants.  Other countries include Afghanistan,

former Soviet Union countries and South Asian neighbors.  Two

stations will be set up in Washington, DC and New York.  In a

meeting with PolOff, Deputy Head of the CCER, Muhibulloh

Dodojonov agreed to allow observers in the polling stations

abroad as well.  The election protocols will be posted at

polling stations and distributed to international observers,

political parties and other such groups.

DECREES 42 and 43

4.  The CCER issued decrees number 42 and 43 signed September 4,

but the international community did not receive a copy until the

week of September 11 and the majority of political parties did

not receive the decree at all.  EmbOffs distributed copies of

the signed decrees to political parties.  Decree 42 sets out the

rights and responsibilities of international and domestic

observers.  Decree 43 stipulates guidelines for political

parties to register representatives to the district and

provincial election committees.  Each party must submit the name

of its one representative to each local election committee for

CCER approval 45 days prior to the election.

5.  When international missions received Decree 42 and 43,

UNTOP, OSCE, IFES and PolOff lobbied the CCER to implement

changes.  For example, in the original draft of Decree 42,

international observers were not allowed to be present in voting

booths while voters marked their ballots.  This rule was not

restricted to the political party representatives, which meant

that if a party representative tried to influence a voter in the

booth, he would, technically, be allowed.  Also Decree 43 did

not explicitly allow parties that did not nominate candidates to

the election to field observers.

6.  In PolOff's meeting with Dodojonov September 12 he agreed to

modify the Decrees based on the concerns the international

DUSHANBE 00001723  002.2 OF 002

community raised.  The CCER then edited the Decrees and

re-signed them incorporating concerns raised including bringing

into congruence rules for international and local political

observers and permitting all political parties to field

observers.  Dodojonov acknowledged that Tajikistan still has a

long way to go in order to fully meet international standards.

Dodojonov made a plea for international financial assistance to

fund publications of election manuals so that international

observers and local commission members know all the rules.  He

also commented that the CCER is cash-strapped.  Because the CCER

does not have money for salaried employees, local governments

handpick district and provincial elections commission members.

According to Dodojonov, because of this, the commissions are

often biased.  If the CCER could employ and train its own

employees, the commissions would be more independent.  He

welcomes short-term OSCE observers and international assistance

in reforming elections procedures in Tajikistan.

MORE CHANGES TO COME

7.  An IFES international consultant will be working with the

CCER on developing an elections manual, which will delineate

precise voting regulations and instructions.  This manual will

clarify remaining ambiguities.  The CCER has agreed to turn the

manual into an official decree, giving its contents the status

of law.

8.  The OSCE is expected to send a full-scale observation

mission with 100 short-term observers.  However, this decision

can be rescinded if the OSCE deems that no legitimate opposition

candidates run in the election or if candidates do not have fair

and adequate access to the media.

COMMENT:

9.  The amount of free media time and space stipulated in the

latest decree for candidates is limited.  By virtue of being

president, Rahmonov has practically unlimited exposure in the

media. He is the wealthiest of any prospective candidate and can

buy all the press time he wants.

10.  Another point of concern is the lack of engagement with all

political parties.  Although the CCER has been open and

cooperative with the international community, they have not made

a strong effort to reach out to political parties, evident by

the fact that political parties were not informed about the

decrees and did not participate in the last CCER meeting.

11.  The changes that Dodojonov and the CCER were willing to

make to the decrees show they are genuinely concerned about how

Tajikistan is perceived by the international community. But the

shortcomings in the original draft of Decrees 42 and 43 show

that the CCER still needs a lot of hand-holding.  Working with

IFES's consultant Ian Smith to edit necessary changes into the

election manual so it can be issued as a decree is critical to

laying the legal foundation for the election process.  This also

paves the way for future elections and opens the door for

further reform.

END COMMENT.

JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 79098

date: 9/20/2006 12:16

refid: 06DUSHANBE1726

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination: 06DUSHANBE1718|06DUSHANBE1726

header:

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PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG

DE RUEHDBU #1726/01 2631216

ZNR UUUUU ZZH

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FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8604

INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1827

RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1829

RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1796

RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1736

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RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 1096

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 0022

RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1825

RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 1786

RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1713

RUEHML/AMEMBASSY MANILA PRIORITY 0096

RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1813

RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1527

RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1545

RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1339

RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 0093

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001726

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECIN, ECON, EFIN, ENRG, EAID, TBIO, TI

SUBJECT: DUSHANBE SCO CONFERENCE - MOVING BEYOND SECURITY INTO

REGIONAL ENERGY AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION

REF: DUSHANBE 1718

DUSHANBE 00001726  001.2 OF 002

1.  SUMMARY: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) focused

on economic and energy cooperation in its Dushanbe meetings

September 15-16.  The six member countries issued a joint

communique affirming their intention to further cooperate in

economic, trade, scientific, technological, social, cultural,

and other fields.  Pakistan and Tajikistan each concluded

bilateral agreements with China.  While Tajikistan and China

will engage in joint military exercises next week in the Tajik

mountains, regional security played a minor role in the SCO

meetings.  END SUMMARY.

2.  As relayed in reftel, the prime ministers of China, Russia,

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and the Uzbek deputy

prime minister met in Dushanbe for the fifth prime minister's

meeting of the SCO.  In addition, representatives from Iran,

Pakistan, India, Mongolia, and Afghanistan participated as

observers.  The communique signed by the SCO members stated that

the SCO's priorities in the near future will be energy,

transportation, and telecommunications.  The SCO prime ministers

want to improve the road network connecting each country and

develop new energy export routes that would serve the six

states.  The countries will seek to establish an "SCO Energy

Club," which Kazakh Prime Minister Danial Akhmetov told press

sources could be the solution to the energy problems of the all

the SCO members.  According to the communique, the energy club

will coordinate regional energy policy and promote cooperation

in the energy sector among SCO members.  Developing relations on

energy issues and energy security will remain a priority in

future meetings of the group, which will meet again some time

next year in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent.

3.  On September 15, China and Tajikistan affirmed the

countries' cooperation on a wide range of issues.  Tajik

President Emomali Rahmonov met with Chinese Prime Minister Wen

Jiabao on the sidelines of the summit and reviewed plans for

expanding bilateral trade and investment, as well as discussing

details of the upcoming joint military exercises.  The countries

promised to boost high-level exchanges, and to "deepen mutual

political trust."  The two countries signed four agreements on

cooperation in the fields of technology, anti-drug trafficking,

health and medicine, and radio, film and television.  According

to Embassy contacts, the Kyrgyz representative complained that

Tajikistan has gained disproportionately from the $900 million

concessional loan offer from China to all Central Asian

countries, (from which Tajikistan borrowed $637 million).

Officials in southern Tajikistan broke ground on September 19 on

the Chinese-funded north-south energy transmission lines.

4.  According to various media sources, Pakistan's Prime

Minister Shaukat Aziz held talks with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

on the sidelines in which they agreed to broaden and deepen the

bilateral relationship.  Pakistan and China vowed to strengthen

their strategic relationship, expanding it in areas including

defense, security, energy and science and technology.  The two

leaders also reviewed the agreements scheduled to be inked

during the November visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to

Pakistan, which Prime Minister Aziz said would be another

"milestone" in bilateral relations.  Both sides also agreed in

principle to conclude an early signing of a Free Trade

Agreement, with the Chinese premier adding that Beijing had also

agreed in principle to establish a joint investment company, the

details of which were currently being worked out.

5.  COMMENT:  As China's avenue of entry into Central Asia, the

SCO appears to be gaining strength as a substantive regional

forum for economic as well as security issues.  How agreements

on divisive energy issues actually derive from "strategic

cooperation" remains to be seen.  The SCO took no public action,

DUSHANBE 00001726  002.2 OF 002

for example, to resolve trade and transport issues or broker

water and energy tensions between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Presidential Advisor Rahmatulloev told Ambassador September 20

that no one is sure what form the "energy club" would take:

"It's only at the discussion stage."  Privately, local Tajik

sources told EmbOffs they see the SCO as a conduit to serve

China's geopolitical interests, but Tajikistan will benefit from

the creation of alternative routes avoiding Uzbekistan.  Russia,

Kazakhstan, and Pakistan seem to have bought in to the

organization, which one local NGO representative called the

"Commonwealth of Authoritarian States."  With China bankrolling

infrastructure development in the region, Russia and others

recognize their governments' need to back up their private

investments in order to play the game in the region.  END

COMMENT.

JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 79190

date: 9/21/2006 8:29

refid: 06DUSHANBE1738

origin: Embassy Dushanbe

classification: UNCLASSIFIED

destination: 06STATE152063

header:

VZCZCXRO5530

PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG

DE RUEHDBU #1738 2640829

ZNR UUUUU ZZH

P R 210829Z SEP 06

FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8626

RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 0095

INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0044

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001738

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR COMMERCE/TCC/4110 MICHAEL ROLLIN

STATE/EB/TPP/MTA EKOCH

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: ECON, ETRD, TI

SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN RESPONSE TO TRADE AGREEMENT COMPLIANCE AND

MONITORING REQUEST

REF: STATE 00152063

1.  (U)  In response to reftel, Embassy Dushanbe submits the

following information regarding Tajikistan's compliance with

U.S. and international trade agreements.

2.  (U)  Tajikistan has not entered into trade agreements with

the United States directly, and is not a member of the World

Trade Organization.  Post follows trade issues, but is not

monitoring compliance with trade agreements.

3.  (U)  Post contact for economic issues is David Froman,

Economics Officer, FromanD@state.gov, [992-37] 229-2506.

JACOBSON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 79199

date: 9/21/2006 9:22

refid: 06BEIJING20105

origin: Embassy Beijing

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination:

header:

VZCZCXRO5603

OO RUEHCN RUEHDBU RUEHGH RUEHVC

DE RUEHBJ #0105/01 2640922

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

O 210922Z SEP 06

FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7658

INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 020105

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2031

TAGS: PREL, PTER, TI, CH

SUBJECT: PRC-TAJIKISTAN: PREMIER WEN DISCUSSES BORDER,

ECONOMY AND COUNTERTERRORISM IN STATE VISIT

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields.

Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

 1.  (C) Summary: Premier Wen Jiabao's September 14-16 state

visit to Tajikistan focused on discussion of economic

development, the disputed China-Tajikistan  border and

counterterrorism issues.  A joint communiqu issued after the

visit emphasized the parties' desire to resolve territorial

disputes along their mountainous border and China's

willingness to support Tajikistan's economic development.

The countries agreed to continue to fight the spread of drugs

and terrorism.  China is watching the upcoming Tajikistan

election closely, an academic specializing in the region told

us.  End Summary.

2. (SBU) On September 14-16, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made

his first state visit to Tajikistan, holding bilateral talks

with President Emomali Rahmonov and attending the Shanghai

Cooperation Organization (SCO) Prime Ministers' Meeting.  Wen

expressed China's interest in concluding a friendship and

cooperation treaty with Tajikistan, while Rahmonov stated

Tajikistan's commitment to a one China policy and opposition

to Taiwan independence in any form.

Border Issues Remain To Be Resolved

-----------------------------------

3. (C) In a joint communiqu issued after the visit, China

and Tajikistan said comprehensively settling their border

dispute is a key to strengthening bilateral relations.  The

Tajikistan border is the last among China's Central Asian

neighbors where a significant dispute exists, so the

communiqu's pledge that both sides will "do a good job in

border survey work and actively work to build the border ...

into one of peace, friendship and good neighborliness" is

significant, according to Xu Tao of the Russian and Central

Asian Department of the China Institute of Contemporary

International Relations.

4. (C) Xu said a 20,000 square kilometer mountainous area of

the border remains disputed.  Prior to dissolution of the

USSR, the USSR had agreed for this territory to be given to

China in exchange for disputed territory along China's

northeastern border with Siberia being transferred to the

USSR, Xu said.  But the disputed area is a significant part

of Tajikistan's territory so the issue has been difficult to

resolve ever since the Soviet Union's dissolution, Xu said.

Should the communiqu form a basis for agreement in principle

on border issues, the China-Tajikistan border dispute would

become one of survey, delimitation and marking, similar to

the type of border issues China has with its other Central

Asian neighbors, he said.

Prospects for Economic Development Need To Warm Up

--------------------------------------------- -----

5. (C) During the visit, China pledged its willingness to

support Tajikistan economic development, according to Zhang

Kunsheng (protect), the Executive Secretary for Foreign

Minister Li Zhaoxing, who was on the trip.  China will

support basic infrastructure work in Tajikistan, Zhang said,

including on the Dushanbe-Chanak highway, on a major highway

tunnel project, on two high-tension power lines that would

strengthen the Tajik electrical grid and on the country's

telecommunications network.  Zhang said the need for economic

development was especially obvious to the Chinese delegation,

including FM Li, who had no heat in their chilly hotel rooms.

Counterterrorism and Anti-Drug Efforts

--------------------------------------

6. (C) In the joint communiqu, China and Tajikistan pledged

continued cooperation to combat the "three evils" of

terrorism, separatism and Islamic extremism.

Counterterrorism cooperation takes place bilaterally and

through the SCO, Zhang said.  Wen and Rahmonov pledged to

strengthen drug interdiction efforts.  Tajikistan leads the

SCO's anti-drug operation and is the largest producer and

transit point for drugs in Central Asia, with most of the

drugs transiting Tajikistan from Afghanistan, Xu said.

Economic development of Tajikistan will help, Xu said, but is

not likely to have an impact on the low incomes or other

conditions that breed terrorism and drug smuggling in

Tajikistan.

Upcoming Election

-----------------

7. (C) China is watching the fall Presidential election in

Tajikistan closely, Xu said.  Rahmonov is popular and China

has no doubt he will be reelected.  The most important thing

BEIJING 00020105  002 OF 002

is that the election process not produce instability in the

country, Xu said.

RANDT

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

id: 79233

date: 9/21/2006 12:06

refid: 06NEWDELHI6582

origin: Embassy New Delhi

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination:

header:

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OO RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHLH RUEHPW

DE RUEHNE #6582/01 2641206

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

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FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8899

INFO RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE

RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY 0592

RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 0392

RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3829

RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 0395

RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 7211

RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 7275

RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0185

RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 3403

RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 7933

RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI

RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT 0575

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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC

RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006582

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2026

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, KISL, MARR, AF, UZ, TI, TX, KZ, KG,

IN

SUBJECT: INDIA KEEPING AN EYE OPEN FOR OPPORTUNITIES IN

CENTRAL ASIA

NEW DELHI 00006582  001.2 OF 002

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

1. (C)  SUMMARY:  MEA Joint Secretary for Eurasia Jaimini

Bhagwati argued that India's role as an observer in the

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a useful

opportunity to help the organization set reasonable

priorities.  Bhagwati expressed interest in cooperating with

the U.S. on technical issues and determining the feasibility

of energy projects.  On the issue of energy for the region,

Bhagwati said that Central Asia needs to diversify its

relationships.  He outlined some projects the GOI has

undertaken in the region, including a joint military and air

base project in Tajikistan.  He also said that, while leaders

in Central Asia are concerned by the encroachment of the

Taliban and the potential for Islamic extremism, the area is

not likely to shift suddenly to fundamentalist Islam.  END

SUMMARY.

--------------------------------------------- ------

India Sees Its Role in the SCO as Non-controversial

--------------------------------------------- ------

2.  (C) PolCouns met with Joint Secretary for Eurasia

Bhagwati on Sep. 20.  Turning immediately to the SCO,

Bhagwati said that the organization hasn't thought through

the role that observer nations should have.  India became an

observer in the organization last year, and is enthusiastic,

he said, about the potential for economic exchanges,

investment, and energy and transportation projects.  When the

SCO works on non-controversial issues such as

narco-trafficking and counter-terrorism, India is "happy to

be a part of it," said Bhagwati.  He stressed that India's

relationship with Central Asia is bilateral.  "It is easy for

India to 'piggy-back' off of what is already happening in the

SCO."  Future projects with the organization depend upon how

the six member countries see the group evolving, he said.

The security of transmission lines through a

still-to-be-determined electrical corridor is of critical

importance to India, according to Bhagwati.

--------------------------------------------- -

Energy and Military Projects with Central Asia

--------------------------------------------- -

3.  (C) Bhagwati said that Central Asia needs to diversify

its commercial relationships in order to meet its energy

needs and supply the needs of others in the region.  He

indicated that India invests somewhat in Kazakhstan and

Tajikistan, and has cultural centers in Uzbekistan.  The only

capital he hasn't yet visited in the region is Ashgebat, he

said, and he plans to visit in October.

4.  (C) At the request of Tajikistan, the GOI is helping to

re-build a runway at Gissar Airport in Ayni, as well as

training army and air force personnel.  The airport had been

"in a shambles," but the new runway is almost complete.

Bhagwati said that the military training program includes a

language lab in the heart of Dushanbe and IT training.  He

indicated that the GOI may look at other requests for

assistance from the GOT.  He said the GOT had also asked for

helicopters, but after providing two, the GOI "doesn't have

any more to spare."

--------------------------

Coordination with the U.S.

--------------------------

5.  (C) The GOI would like to see more coordination with the

U.S. on technical issues, Bhagwati said, and is interested in

seeing engineer's assessments and feasibility studies.  An

economist trained at MIT, Bhagwati said that he had seen a

NEW DELHI 00006582  002.2 OF 002

lot of reports from the U.S., but would lik

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